![]() ![]() This primary season will probably not be a long one, however.įor DeSantis, everything depends on Iowa - if he can’t beat Trump, he must at least finish closer to Trump than to Haley, to give him momentum going into New Hampshire. The latter would be a grave warning about GOP readiness for next November. If the electorate doesn’t reflect the mix of voters that pollsters assume if some Trump supporters, overconfident of victory, don’t show up and if his campaign doesn’t work to make sure its turnout matches or exceeds his lead in the polls, the outcome will be an upset win for a rival or a dispiriting victory for Trump. The second thing Trump’s rivals need to be true involves skill, not luck: They need their voter-mobilization operations to be better than his. ![]() ![]() Haley, on the other hand, stands to benefit if the primary electorate is less Republican and ideologically conservative: She does well with independents and has crossover appeal with Democrats. The Florida governor’s strategy rests on the hope voters will be more ideological than pollsters expect. In 2016, Trump was often the beneficiary of crossover voting in primaries, while caucuses - where only the most ideologically orthodox conservative Republicans tend to vote - rewarded candidates like Ted Cruz, who beat Trump in Iowa that year.ĭeSantis has pitched his campaign to conservatives, both those who like Trump but question his electability or performance as president and those who think Trump was insufficiently principled. In primaries and caucuses the electorate is much smaller - and in open primaries, independents and Democrats can cast ballots in the Republican contest. It’s tricky enough to predict who’ll vote in general elections. His rivals, chief among them Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, need two things to be true to have a shot at overcoming him.įirst, the polls will have to be wrong about who actually shows up for the caucuses and primaries. What they don’t show is whether he has the campaign organization to turn his lead on paper into an equally conclusive result when the ballots are counted. Polls testify to Donald Trump’s popularity with the base. Ron DeSantis qualifies for ballot in 30 states and territories, campaign saysĪ little more than six weeks before the Iowa caucuses, the race for the Republican presidential nomination looks like it’s over before it’s begun.īut one question critical to the GOP’s chances next year is still open, and the primaries will help answer it: Can Republicans get out the vote? Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone endorses Nikki Haley for president: ‘Statesman-like, elegant’ Megyn Kelly says Trump has lost ‘multiple steps’ mentally Trump beats Biden in new Wall Street Journal poll ![]()
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